the vynsane asylum

It's that time of the year again!

Which film do you think is gonna bring home the most bacon? As always, I'm not asking you which film is the "best" (although feel free to champion your favorites in the comments). We're looking for $$$ not aesthetics.

As always, I leave animated films off the list. Even Pixar films. Despite people crying like the seven year olds who watch Pixar films. And I realize Oz is a March film which is pre-Summer. But I figure it has a more realistic chance than plenty of the other Summer Films (Kick Ass 2, RIPD, etc) and hey, Hunger Games came close last year and it was a spring release.

And GIJoe got left off, because it was on last year's list. So it's getting docked for its truancy.

Personally, I think it's going to come down to Lone Ranger and IM3. Star Trek will get the Bronze.
Superman will "disappoint" even if it does $200M and we'll never get a Justice League movie.

Elysium will be a dark horse surprise, but won't get anywhere close to the top three.

Everything else is on the list just to fill out the ten slots. Pacific Rim looks fun. Wolverine I'm hopeful for. The Fast and Furious series has turned into a guilty pleasure franchise; dumb but fun. And World War Z looks decent.


So there it is! Have at it.

Isn't the second part of The Hobbit coming out this summer?

I'm leaning towards Iron Man.

Hobbit 2 comes out in December. Hobbit 3 comes out Summer 2014. It'll be on next year's list with Amazing Spidey 2 and Captain America 2 and X-Men 6...no 5...no 7...err whatever X-Men they're on.

I'm guessing the increased buzz about JJ Abrams is going to push Star Trek into first, ahead of Iron Man.

jjreason wrote:I'm guessing the increased buzz about JJ Abrams is going to push Star Trek into first, ahead of Iron Man.

Your reasoning is sound.
However, apart from a relatively small cross section of Internet Nerds, nobody knows JJ Abrams(he's not a household name y'see) and they certainly don't know the Wars/Trek connection. And I doubt Paramount would promote their new Star Trek film as "by the guy who's Going To direct Disney's new Star Wars movie in Three Years!! Woot!!"

From another company, no less.

His name's been in the news. Between Star Wars, Star Trek, Lost & whatever the fuck else he's done, I think the buzz is significant and it's only going to grow.

Plus, the Star Trek movie actually looks pretty damned good, curse my soul.

Let's compare the box office totals of the previous entries in these respective franchises (or similar films), shall we?

Oz: The Great and Powerful
Alice in Wonderland (2010): $334,191,110 domestic, $1,024,299,904 worldwide
Disney is marketing this in a similar way to their big hit Alice in Wonderland, so the comparison could be apt.

Iron Man 3
The Avengers (2012) - $623,357,910 domestic, $1,511,757,910 worldwide
Iron Man 2 (2010) - $312,433,331 domestic, $623,933,331 worldwide
Unsurprisingly, the team does better when they're all together. Will Iron Man be able to capitalize on last year's huge success?

Star Trek Into Darkness
Star Trek (2009) - $257,730,019 domestic, $385,680,446 worldwide

Fast and Furious 6
Fast Five (2011): $209,837,675 domestic, $626,137,675 worldwide
This was the highest-grossing entry in the series.

Man of Steel
The Dark Knight Rises (2009): $448,139,099 domestic, $1,081,041,287 worldwide
Superman Returns (2006): $200,081,192 domestic, $391,081,192 worldwide
Supes didn't fly so high last time, but could the reboot get some of that Christopher Nolan cash?

World War Z
Zombie and post-apocalyptic movies do reasonably well, but are not usually the biggest draws.

Lone Ranger
Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides (2011): $241,071,802 domestic, $1,043,871,802 worldwide
That's the only thing I can think to compare it to. That was the worst-performing of the series, but former franchise director Gore Verbinski is back with Johnny Depp and Jerry Bruckheimer.

Pacific Rim
None of del Toro's previous directing work has cracked $100 million domestically. But will this get some of the Transformers audience?

The Wolverine
X-Men: First Class (2011): $146,408,305 domestic, $353,624,124 worldwide
X-Men Origins: Wolverine (2009): $179,883,157 domestic, $373,062,864 worldwide
Wolverine's last solo outing made more than the most recent X-Men film, despite people generally liking First Class much more.

Elysium
District 9 (2009): $115,646,235 domestic, $210,819,611 worldwide



Iron Man will take top honors. Oz will come very close. I think The Lone Ranger will be third.

Wow. Lone Ranger bombed.

Tom Foolery wrote:Wow. Lone Ranger bombed.

An article on Yahoo called it a "John Carter-sized bomb".

Ran wrote:

Tom Foolery wrote:Wow. Lone Ranger bombed.

An article on Yahoo called it a "John Carter-sized bomb".

Is that roughly the same size as a "Speed Racer-sized bomb"?

Tom Foolery wrote:

Ran wrote:

Tom Foolery wrote:Wow. Lone Ranger bombed.

An article on Yahoo called it a "John Carter-sized bomb".

Is that roughly the same size as a "Speed Racer-sized bomb"?

I'm not sure. Is there a movie bomb conversion chart? If not, we should make one.

Ran wrote:

Tom Foolery wrote:

Ran wrote:
An article on Yahoo called it a "John Carter-sized bomb".

Is that roughly the same size as a "Speed Racer-sized bomb"?

I'm not sure. Is there a movie bomb conversion chart? If not, we should make one.

(b + p) ÷ o = f

Where b = Budget of film
p = Promotional costs
o = Opening Weekend Box Office.
and f = Fail.

I'm sure the backlash about a white dude playing an Indian did them no services.

I've also read a couple of reviews that said it paid little heed to the source material, which is unfortunate.

But, no matter what anyone says about it, if it's getting Speed Racer and John Carter comparisons, maybe I need to check it out.

4th of july weekend is a retarded weekend to open on anyway. everyone's hanging out with family, having cook-outs, drinking beer, and blowing shit up. in the middle of all that, they don't say "hey, i have an idea - let's all go sit in a dark room together and silently stare in one direction for a few hours while pictures are thrown on the wall."

i really wish opening weekends didn't mean as much as they do these days. movies used to be able to garner word-of-mouth before critics and execs alike started crying in their fruitloops.